ABSTRACT The diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a transient hyperglycemic state during pregnancy, has varied remarkably over time, resulting in a diversity of prevalence rates. The aim of this systematic literature review was to provide estimates of prevalence rates of GDM in Brazil according to different diagnostic criteria. We identified, reviewed, and extracted data from the scientific literature on studies estimating the prevalence of diabetes in pregnant women living in Brazil. The databases searched were PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We grouped studies by the source of information assessing GDM, patients’ age, and criteria used to diagnose GDM. When three or more studies were available in a group, we calculated the pooled prevalence. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) appraisal tool was used to assess the risk of bias. The data were reported according to the 2020 PRISMA recommendations. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO. We identified 1,328 records and selected 21 studies involving 122,635 pregnant women. Studies in adults only, with primary data and laboratory measurements, and using the IADPSG criteria (n = 3) had a GDM prevalence of 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.0-20.1%) and included 6,243 participants. Estimates of self-reported GDM (n = 3; 10,136 participants of all ages) had a pooled GDM prevalence of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-5.2%), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 85.0%, p < 0.01). Studies including adolescents had consistently low prevalences. The prevalence of GDM in Brazil varied, was greater when the IADPSG criteria were applied, and depended on the methods used to obtain the GDM information and the age structure of the sample.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Epidemiological surveys revealed that Brazil has a high burden of oral diseases. However, no prior study has reported estimates of untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism over a three-decade period. The objective of this study is to report the trends of prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability (YLDs) due to untreated dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism in Brazil between 1990 and 2019. METHODS Estimates of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism were produced for Brazil, by sex and age, between 1990 and 2019, using Dismod-MR 2.1, as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Trends of oral disorders were analyzed using generalized linear regression models applying the Prais-Winsten method. RESULTS Almost 100 million Brazilians presented at least one oral disorder in 2019, which was equivalent to a prevalence of 45.3%. All oral diseases combined ranked eighth among all causes of disability, causing more than 970,000 YLDs. Untreated dental caries in primary teeth were estimated to affect 13.5 million children, and untreated dental caries in permanent teeth affected more than 52 million people. Periodontitis affected 29.5 million people, and edentulism affected almost 22 million. The generalized linear regression models revealed a trend of stability of oral disorders between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS The burden of oral diseases in Brazil is extremely high. Oral disorders, edentulism in particular, caused disability at levels that are comparable to other important chronic diseases.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Cancers are the second main cause of morbidity worldwide, but robust information on lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil is lacking. This study aimed to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality caused by lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers and age-period-cohort effects in the Brazilian population of 30 years of age and over, in the period of 1990 to 2019. METHODS: A time series study of the incidence and mortality rates for oral cavity and pharynx cancer (“Lip and oral cavity cancer”, “Nasopharynx cancer”, and “Other pharynx cancer”) was conducted, with corrected data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, for the global population, were gathered according to the individuals’ sex. The annual average percentage change (AAPC) was estimated, as was the age-period-cohort effects. RESULTS: The incidence and mortality rates were higher for men in the studied anatomical regions. The cancers tended to decrease for men, except for nasopharynx cancer, which increased in individuals of both sexes. Mortality tended to present a decline in most of the groups studied. For men and women, the age-period-cohort model presented a better adjustment for both incidence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and mortality caused by the main head and neck cancers showed a tendency to decline over the past 30 years in Brazil, except for nasopharynx cancer, which showed an increase in incidence and mortality in some segments of the population. Higher rates were found for lip and oral cavity cancers in men.

Objective: To describe the prevalence of use of dental services in Brazil according to the states and its association with socioeconomic variables and types of services in the Brazilian Health Survey of 2019. Methods: A population-based, cross-sectional study using data from the Brazilian Health Survey of 2019, including 88,531 individuals with 18 years of age or more. Results: Dental services utilization in the year prior to the study was more frequent among adults (53.2%, 95% CI:52.5-53.9) than in older adults (34.3%, 95% CI: 33.2-34.4). The multivariate analysis revealed that the use of dental services was more in people with more schooling (PR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.87-2.18) and higher income (PR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.45-1.64). The prevalence of dental services utilization in the year prior to the survey was higher among participants of the southeast, south and Midwest regions, ranging between 49.0% and 57.6%. Conclusion: Inequalities in dental services utilization were common in adults and older adults, with important regional differences; women, younger participants, those with more schooling and higher income, people with better oral health-related behaviors, better self-perceived oral health and those who paid for their lasts dental consultation were more likely to have used dental services in the year prior to the study.

Objetivo: Descrever a prevalência do uso de serviços odontológicos no Brasil segundo as Unidades Federadas, sua relação com variáveis socioeconômicas e tipos de serviços, com base na Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS) de 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal de base populacional com dados da PNS 2019, incluindo 88.531 participantes de 18 anos ou mais. Foram analisadas variáveis referentes ao uso de serviços de saúde bucal, segundo características sociodemográficas e comportamentais, por meio de análise multivariada, utilizando modelo regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. Resultados: A utilização de serviços odontológicos no ano anterior à entrevista foi maior entre os adultos (53,2%, IC95%: 52,5-53,9) do que entre os idosos (34,3%, IC95% 33,2-34,4). Na análise multivariada, o uso de serviços odontológicos foi maior em pessoas com maior nível educacional (RP:2,02, IC95%: 1,87-2,18) e de maior renda (RP:1,54, IC95%: 1,45-1,64). Os estados das regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e Sul apresentaram as maiores porcentagens de indivíduos que consultaram com dentista no último ano, entre 49,0 a 57,6% da população. Conclusão: Desigualdades no uso dos serviços de saúde bucal foram observadas na população adulta e idosa, com diferenças entre as regiões do país; foi identificado maior uso entre as mulheres, indivíduos mais jovens, escolarizados e de maior renda, e entre a população com melhores comportamentos relacionados à sua saúde, melhor percepção do seu estado de saúde, e aqueles que pagaram pelo último atendimento odontológico.

Resumo Objetivo Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Abstract Objective To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Resumen Objetivo Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.

Resumo Objetivo Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Abstract Objective To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Resumen Objetivo Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever a prevalência do uso de serviços odontológicos no Brasil segundo as Unidades Federadas, sua relação com variáveis socioeconômicas e tipos de serviços, com base na Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde de 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal de base populacional com dados da PNS 2019, que incluiu 88.531 participantes de 18 anos ou mais. Foram analisadas variáveis referentes ao uso de serviços de saúde bucal, segundo características sociodemográficas e comportamentais, por meio de análise multivariada, utilizando modelo regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. Resultados: A utilização de serviços odontológicos no ano anterior à entrevista foi maior entre os adultos (53,2%, intervalo de confiança — IC95% 52,5–53,9) do que entre os idosos (34,3%, IC95% 33,2–34,4). Na análise multivariada, o uso de serviços odontológicos foi maior em pessoas com maior nível educacional (razão de prevalência — RP=2,02, IC95% 1,87–2,18) e maior renda (RP=1,54, IC95% 1,45–1,64). Os estados das regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e Sul apresentaram as maiores porcentagens de indivíduos que consultaram um dentista no último ano, entre 49,0 e 57,6% da população. Conclusão: Desigualdades no uso dos serviços de saúde bucal foram observadas na população adulta e idosa, com diferenças entre as regiões do país; foi identificado maior uso entre mulheres, indivíduos mais jovens, escolarizados e de maior renda, entre a população com melhores comportamentos relacionados à sua saúde, melhor percepção do seu estado de saúde, e aqueles que pagaram pelo último atendimento odontológico.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the prevalence of use of dental services in Brazil according to states and the Federal District and its relationship with socioeconomic variables and types of services, based on the 2019 National Health Survey. Methods: This is a cross-sectional population-based study using data from the 2019 National Health Survey, which included 88,531 participants aged 18 or older. We assessed variables related to the use of dental health services according to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics through multivariate analysis, using a Poisson regression model with robust variance. Results: The use of dental services in the year prior to the interview was higher among adults (53.2%, confidence interval — 95%CI 52.5–53.9) than older adults (34.3%, 95%CI 33.2–34.4). The multivariate analysis revealed that the use of dental services was greater in people with better schooling (prevalence ratio — PR=2.02, 95%CI 1.87–2.18) and higher income (PR=1.54, 95%CI 1.45–1.64). States from the Southeast, Midwest, and South regions presented the highest percentages of individuals who visited a dentist in the previous year — between 49.0 and 57.6% of the population. Conclusion: Inequalities were found in the use of dental health services among the adult and older adult population, with regional differences; the use was higher among women, younger individuals, those with better schooling, higher income, healthier behaviors, better self-perceived oral health status, and who paid for their last dental treatment.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever a prevalência do uso de serviços odontológicos no Brasil segundo as Unidades Federadas, sua relação com variáveis socioeconômicas e tipos de serviços, com base na Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde de 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal de base populacional com dados da PNS 2019, que incluiu 88.531 participantes de 18 anos ou mais. Foram analisadas variáveis referentes ao uso de serviços de saúde bucal, segundo características sociodemográficas e comportamentais, por meio de análise multivariada, utilizando modelo regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. Resultados: A utilização de serviços odontológicos no ano anterior à entrevista foi maior entre os adultos (53,2%, intervalo de confiança — IC95% 52,5–53,9) do que entre os idosos (34,3%, IC95% 33,2–34,4). Na análise multivariada, o uso de serviços odontológicos foi maior em pessoas com maior nível educacional (razão de prevalência — RP=2,02, IC95% 1,87–2,18) e maior renda (RP=1,54, IC95% 1,45–1,64). Os estados das regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e Sul apresentaram as maiores porcentagens de indivíduos que consultaram um dentista no último ano, entre 49,0 e 57,6% da população. Conclusão: Desigualdades no uso dos serviços de saúde bucal foram observadas na população adulta e idosa, com diferenças entre as regiões do país; foi identificado maior uso entre mulheres, indivíduos mais jovens, escolarizados e de maior renda, entre a população com melhores comportamentos relacionados à sua saúde, melhor percepção do seu estado de saúde, e aqueles que pagaram pelo último atendimento odontológico.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the prevalence of use of dental services in Brazil according to states and the Federal District and its relationship with socioeconomic variables and types of services, based on the 2019 National Health Survey. Methods: This is a cross-sectional population-based study using data from the 2019 National Health Survey, which included 88,531 participants aged 18 or older. We assessed variables related to the use of dental health services according to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics through multivariate analysis, using a Poisson regression model with robust variance. Results: The use of dental services in the year prior to the interview was higher among adults (53.2%, confidence interval — 95%CI 52.5–53.9) than older adults (34.3%, 95%CI 33.2–34.4). The multivariate analysis revealed that the use of dental services was greater in people with better schooling (prevalence ratio — PR=2.02, 95%CI 1.87–2.18) and higher income (PR=1.54, 95%CI 1.45–1.64). States from the Southeast, Midwest, and South regions presented the highest percentages of individuals who visited a dentist in the previous year — between 49.0 and 57.6% of the population. Conclusion: Inequalities were found in the use of dental health services among the adult and older adult population, with regional differences; the use was higher among women, younger individuals, those with better schooling, higher income, healthier behaviors, better self-perceived oral health status, and who paid for their last dental treatment.

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1o de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17.000 óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause gt;63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions.nbsp; Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.

Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del IHME para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados y discutir la precisión y las implicaciones en diferentes escenarios. Métodos: Describimos y estimamos la precisión de las previsiones para Brasil, comparándolos con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados: La proyección predice 192.511 muertes por la pandemia al 1 de diciembre de 2020. La relajación continua del aislamiento físico obligatorio, a pesar del continuo aumento de muertes, puede causar gt;63.000 muertes adicionales; el rápido aumento en el uso de mascarillas puede reducir el número a ~25.000. Es posible que varios estados deban restablecer las restricciones. Las diferencias entre las proyecciones del IHME hasta las 6 semanas y las muertes registradas oscilaron entre -11% y 48% para Brasil. Conclusiones: Las proyecciones de corto a mediano plazo del IHME brindan información válida para informar a los administradores de salud, oficiales electos y la sociedad. Sugieren un curso prolongado, alta mortalidad y probablemente nuevas restricciones.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do IHME para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados e discutir acurácia e implicações em diferentes cenários. Métodos: Descrevemos e estimamos a acurácia das previsões para o Brasil, comparando-as com as mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 192.511 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1 de dezembro de 2020. O relaxamento continuado do isolamento físico obrigatório, apesar do aumento continuado dos óbitos, pode causar gt;63.000 mortes adicionais; o rápido aumento no uso de máscara pode reduzir o número para ~25.000. Vários estados poderão ter que reinstituir restrições. As diferenças entre as projeções do IHME até 6 semanas e as mortes registradas variaram de -11% a 48% para o Brasil. Conclusões: As projeções de curto a médio prazo do IHME fornecem informações válidas para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e a sociedade em geral. Elas sugerem curso prolongado, grande mortalidade e prováveis novas restrições.

Resumo O objetivo foi analisar a qualidade do consumo alimentar de crianças com um ano de idade acompanhadas por um serviço de Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS). Trata-se de estudo transversal aninhado a uma coorte de saúde bucal infantil em que foram coletados dados de crianças nascidas em 2013 e acompanhadas por 2 anos, em Porto Alegre. Foi aplicado um questionário sobre variáveis maternas e frequência de consultas de puericultura, medidas antropométricas e consumo alimentar da criança. Para tal, foi gerado um escore a partir da pontuação criada conforme o SISVAN (Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional). Foi calculado um modelo multivariado, por meio da Regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. A amostra consistiu de 249 crianças. Encontrou-se 30,5% (76) de qualidade ruim/regular da alimentação, que no modelo multivariado esteve associada com nível educacional do responsável, sendo até ensino médio incompleto (RP = 2,14, IC95% = 1,03-4,44) e ensino médio completo (RP = 1,70, IC95% = 0,81-3,54), assim como não ter consultado com dentista (RP = 2,54, IC95% = 1,33-4,84) ou ter consultado até o quarto mês de idade (RP = 1,94, IC95% = 1,01-3,72). Conclui-se que não consultar com dentista no primeiro ano de vida e menor escolaridade materna repercutem negativamente na qualidade alimentar infantil.

Abstract The purpose of this paper was to analyze the food intake quality in one year-old children seen by a primary healthcare (PHC) service. This is a cross-sectional studied nested within a child oral health cohort study which collected data regarding children born in 2013 and monitored in Porto Alegre for two years. We applied a questionnaire on maternal variables and frequency of pediatric appointments, weight and height measurements, and children’s food intake. To that end, a score was generated based on the points assigned according to SISVAN (meaning ‘food and nutrition monitoring system,’ run by the Brazilian Ministry of Health). A multivariate model was calculated using Poisson regression with robust variance. The sample comprised 249 children. We found 30.5% (76) of poor/regular dietary quality, which in the multivariate model was associated to the guardian’s educational background, considering up to incomplete high school (PR = 2.14, CI95% = 1.03-4.44) and complete high school (PR = 1.70, CI95% = 0.81-3.54), as well as their failure to see a dentist (PR = 2.54, CI95% = 1.33-4.84) or having seen one before the age of four months (PR = 1.94, CI95% = 1.01-3.72). It is our conclusion that failing to see a dentist within the first year of life and lower maternal schooling negatively impact on children’s dietary quality.

Resumo O objetivo foi analisar a qualidade do consumo alimentar de crianças com um ano de idade acompanhadas por um serviço de Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS). Trata-se de estudo transversal aninhado a uma coorte de saúde bucal infantil em que foram coletados dados de crianças nascidas em 2013 e acompanhadas por 2 anos, em Porto Alegre. Foi aplicado um questionário sobre variáveis maternas e frequência de consultas de puericultura, medidas antropométricas e consumo alimentar da criança. Para tal, foi gerado um escore a partir da pontuação criada conforme o SISVAN (Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional). Foi calculado um modelo multivariado, por meio da Regressão de Poisson com variância robusta. A amostra consistiu de 249 crianças. Encontrou-se 30,5% (76) de qualidade ruim/regular da alimentação, que no modelo multivariado esteve associada com nível educacional do responsável, sendo até ensino médio incompleto (RP = 2,14, IC95% = 1,03-4,44) e ensino médio completo (RP = 1,70, IC95% = 0,81-3,54), assim como não ter consultado com dentista (RP = 2,54, IC95% = 1,33-4,84) ou ter consultado até o quarto mês de idade (RP = 1,94, IC95% = 1,01-3,72). Conclui-se que não consultar com dentista no primeiro ano de vida e menor escolaridade materna repercutem negativamente na qualidade alimentar infantil.

Abstract The purpose of this paper was to analyze the food intake quality in one year-old children seen by a primary healthcare (PHC) service. This is a cross-sectional studied nested within a child oral health cohort study which collected data regarding children born in 2013 and monitored in Porto Alegre for two years. We applied a questionnaire on maternal variables and frequency of pediatric appointments, weight and height measurements, and children’s food intake. To that end, a score was generated based on the points assigned according to SISVAN (meaning ‘food and nutrition monitoring system,’ run by the Brazilian Ministry of Health). A multivariate model was calculated using Poisson regression with robust variance. The sample comprised 249 children. We found 30.5% (76) of poor/regular dietary quality, which in the multivariate model was associated to the guardian’s educational background, considering up to incomplete high school (PR = 2.14, CI95% = 1.03-4.44) and complete high school (PR = 1.70, CI95% = 0.81-3.54), as well as their failure to see a dentist (PR = 2.54, CI95% = 1.33-4.84) or having seen one before the age of four months (PR = 1.94, CI95% = 1.01-3.72). It is our conclusion that failing to see a dentist within the first year of life and lower maternal schooling negatively impact on children’s dietary quality.

RESUMO Os defeitos do esmalte dentário (DED) são lesões que ocorrem devido a vários fatores e é necessária atenção para promover seu tratamento e prevenção. O objetivo foi avaliar a ocorrência de DED em dentes permanentes de crianças que usaram antimicrobianos nos primeiros quatro anos de vida. Tratase de um estudo transversal realizado em um serviço de Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS), que incluiu crianças de seis a 12 anos de idade. A DED foi avaliada por dados de exames bucais, e os dados sobre o uso de antimicrobiano na primeira infância foram coletados com base em prontuários médicos. A análise foi realizada com o teste do quiquadrado e o teste exato de Fisher. A amostra foi composta por 144 crianças. Em relação ao DED, 50%(72) e 20,1%(29) apresentaram opacidade e hipoplasia, respectivamente. A amoxicilina foi o medicamento prescrito com mais freqüência, seguido pelo sulfametoxazol+ trimetoprim. Entre as crianças, 78,5%(113) receberam medica mentos antimicrobianos pelo menos uma vez nos primeiros 4 anos de vida e 55%(79) deles apresentaram algum tipo de DED. Não houve associação estatisticamente significante entre as variáveis analisadas. Em conclusão, houve uma alta prevalência de crianças com DED e a amoxicilina foi o antibiótico mais comumente prescrito.

ABSTRACT Dental enamel defects (DED) are lesions that occur due several factors. Proper care is needed to promote their treatment and prevention. The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of DED in permanent teeth of children who used antimicrobial drugs in the first four years of life. This is a crosssectional study carried out in a Primary Health Care (PHC) service, which included children from six to 12 years of age. DED were evaluated by oral examination, and data on the use of antimicrobials in early childhood were collected based on medical records. Data were analyzed with the chisquare test and Fisher’s exact test. The sample included 144 children. In relation to DED, 50% (72) and 20.1% (29) presented opacity and hypoplasia, respectively. Amoxicillin was the most frequently prescribed drug, followed by sulfamethoxazole + trimethoprim. Among the children, 78.5% (113) were prescribed antimicrobial drugs at least once during the first 4 years of life, and 55% (79) of them presented some type of DED. There was no statistically significant association between the variables analyzed. In conclusion, there was high prevalence of children with DED, and amoxicillin was the most commonly prescribed antibiotic.